About those Serendipity’s ….

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I’ve had a few people ask us where the Serendipity’s have gone as there haven’t been any the past few weeks. Well, they’ve been sort of ‘redone’ in a way that will offer a lot more dolls via a raffle type system AND is a fully automated sort of deal (which is a yay! for me – it sends out the invoices and EVERYTHING!). So, from now on now there will be a regular upload (hosted on Big Cartel for now until our new site is ready) and then after we will put up more dolls for sale via raffle on our site hosted by Hyenacart. I hope to split it up around 50/50.

So far most of the response has been VERY positive. We are really digging the ‘OMG- I can’t believe I finally got a doll!!” and lots of ‘I never ever get chosen for anything!!’ – lots of newbies and others who’ve been feeling no hope with our uploads ( slow connection, daytime uploads, etc). We’ve been really liking it.

There has been a few glitches in the system that have come up. Last week 2 people got two dolls and someone told me that someone put their name in and it didn’t show up. These things aren’t the best things to happen – I know – but it seems to be working well for 90% of the time. It’s not perfect but nothing is I’ve realized (lots of heartache over imperfect ecommerce sites!! My one before I switched to Big Cartel would sell the same doll to 3 people! I have a LOT of web traffic and systems tend to glitch a bit when it get’s heavy) . If someone does get two dolls then I put the other doll in the following week – so it works out. And if someone doesn’t see their name then they can email me or Hyenacart support and we can figure it out. I just love the raffle style a lot and so do lots of our customers.

So, now after the upload they raffle dolls will be going up. They will stay up Saturday and have staggered end times on Sunday. There will be previews on Thursday night for both so you will know what is going where.

For the raffle dolls there will be ONE entry per household PER doll. Dulpicate entries will be deleted. If you are chosen you are sent an auto email with an invoice – easy peasy ๐Ÿ™‚ You can enter in for whichever dolls(s) you want but only ONCE per listing/doll. On the off chance that you are chosen to win 2 dolls (like what happened last week) then you would choose the doll you want most and the other one would be put into next week’s drawing. I hope this is clear!

Karen, from Hyenacart will be posting on my Facebook wall soon (probably late tommorrow night) about her system so we can discuss if you have any questions. Here is what she has to say about the raffle system ๐Ÿ™‚ LOVE Karen from Hyenacart – amazing support!

The way a winner is chosen in the Hyena Cart drawings is random, but deterministic. This means that winners are chosen by a very specific formula, but one in which the inputs are completely random for each listing. Thus, once all entrants have entered the drawing, and the drawing ends, the winning entry is already determined based on information in the database related to the listing, and the number of entrants. This number is calculated as a number only and has nothing to do with the email addresses or user id’s of the entrants. It can’t be influenced by the seller, or the entrants. It also can’t be predicted ahead of time by the entrants as the formula is quite complex and involves several piece of information that are only found in the database and not viewable to the public. Finally, even if someone did know which position in the list of entrants to try for, there’s no way to predict how many total entrants there will be and ensure that that person enters and is in the right position in the list.

So why do we see multiple winners more often then we would expect to? It’s very similar to what mathematicians call the “Birthday Paradox.” It turns out that in a pool of 23 people, there’s over a 50% chance that two people will have the same birthday. Seem counter-intuitive? Here’s a great description of the paradox:ย  http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
For Bamboletta drawings, let’s assume that there are 21 drawings, and 200 entrants each. In this situation, the probability that the same person would win two drawings is:

P = 1 – (200)!/(200-21)! x (1/200)^21
Surprisingly, that turns out to be 66% or about a 2 in 3 chance that there would be a match!
The chance that there would be two matches is 66%x66% or 43% and the chance of three matches is 29%, still better than 1 in 4.

So as unlikely as it seems intuitively, the odds are actually quite good that there will be someone who wins more than one drawing in a short period of time.







22 responses to “About those Serendipity’s ….”

  1. jessica siemonsma Avatar
    jessica siemonsma

    I love the raffle… It is so easy.. I got a doll via the raffle and was shocked… Never win anything… The carting is a bit tricky for sure… I agree it is a win win for everyone… Thanks for all your hard work.. The dolls are amazing and my daughter loves hers…

  2. Michelle P Avatar
    Michelle P

    I LOVE the picture of the rainbow doll!!! I like the raffles also…gives everyone a chance and they are stress – free…I love that!!! I don’t feel tied down to be home and at the computer at upload time!!!!!!!

  3. Theresa Haas Avatar
    Theresa Haas

    She is our dream doll!!! We would be thrilled to give her a home!

  4. Theresa Haas Avatar
    Theresa Haas

    lol…thought she was up for serendipity. got so excited to see a rainbow I didn’t read first.lol

  5. Mindy Avatar

    I love the raffle style, I am in Australia & even with fast internet it seems impossible to be quick enough to get a doll on Big Cartel. With the raffle style I feel like I have a chance of getting one of your dolls. Thank you so much for offering this style!!

  6. Michelle Avatar

    I like this better. I feel like I have more of a shot.

  7. Tracy Avatar

    Beautiful Dolly. THanks for the explanation.

  8. Kelly Hall Avatar
    Kelly Hall

    I am happy with the new system. And Karen’s explanation is great!

  9. Heather Avatar

    I’m excited about the new system. It seems great for everyone involved. Thanks for the explanation!

  10. Lisa Avatar

    I love the raffle style of selling dolls, so much fairer for all buyers.

  11. Melissa Avatar

    The raffles were weird for me last week. Like the winners were not shown. A few of them, people were claiming to have won, but I could still comment.If you are lucky to purchase on BC, I am assuming you will not be allowed to post on the raffles. Please let us know otherwise. Also, I know that people will find a way to get around any rule that’s written, but I know there are people who are not playing fair. You can have as many as 8 emails on you paypal account, and HC has no limits as to how many IDs you can have. So there are people entering as many as 8 times on one Paypal account. And some even have multiple PP accounts. Having said all of that, I love the idea of newbies getting dolls that would have very little chance on BC uploads. So raffles are great for that. But I do think the raffle system has given the cheaters an advantage that they didn’t have in the BC uploads.

    1. admin Avatar

      Very valid points Melissa! I equate the multiple entries to people using friends, ‘team buying’ or ‘angel services’ to gain an advantage in an upload – I really think it all works out about the same. And yes, if you get a doll on BC then you can’t enter for one on Hyenacart – this is why we are doing it after the uploads .. so no one gets into that predicament.

  12. Bamboletta Helper Avatar
    Bamboletta Helper

    Melissa, you are correct, if you win on Big Cartel you can’t enter on the raffles. And no matter what we do someone is going to try to cook the system, there is only so much we can do.

  13. Amy Freemon Avatar
    Amy Freemon

    I also really love the raffle style, I feel like it gives me a better chance because I have to work during the uploads and if I do get to try I never cart a doll so thank you for giving us a better chance, I hope one day my number will be picked!! LOVE LOVE LOVE your dolls and your sweet little company! Thank you for making us all feel special!

  14. Jenn Hayley Melanie Avatar
    Jenn Hayley Melanie

    Loving this raffle system :). Thank you for offering both options :).

  15. molly Avatar

    Are you saying it is ok to have multiple entries. Your post confused me.

    1. admin Avatar

      Yes Molly – you can enter on all the dolls but just once per doll. Sorry for the confusion. If you were to win multiple dolls then you’d only be able to choose one and the other doll would go into next week’s draw. ๐Ÿ™‚

  16. Debby L. Avatar
    Debby L.

    Looking forward to seeing Fortune “back up” for the raffle system this week!

  17. Kara Lagman Avatar
    Kara Lagman

    I was one of the “picked twice” lucky winners last week. I’m not sure how I got so lucky, but I must say I am entirely grateful for the raffles because I work most Fridays. Another weird thing, the only time I ever did that birthday paradox game was with a group of about 40 people and it was my birthday that matched up with another person’s. I still remember it vividly because “it worked.” Anyway, whomever gets Fortune this week, love her to pieces. It was a tough choice.

  18. Courtney Scaggs Avatar

    Hope I can get a dolly for my baby doll Gracey!

  19. Roxy Avatar

    I love the raffle style . . . there is no way we would ever get a doll via the original carting method, so I feel like maybe one of these days we’ll have a chance AND it’s lots of fun! Thanks for offering this for those of us that gave up! ๐Ÿ™‚

  20. mardi maynard Avatar
    mardi maynard

    Thank you for switching. I found the old system very frustrating because it was hard to be home at a specific time and try to cart a doll for 40 minutes. Hoping for a boy soon!

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